Wild-Card Race Scenarios Outlined for the New York Jets

With four games left in the 2024 NFL regular season, the New York Jets find themselves in the thick of the AFC wild-card race—sitting at 8-6, one game behind the 9-5 Cleveland Browns for the No. 6 seed and tied with the 8-6 Pittsburgh Steelers for the seventh spot. For Jets fans, this means every win, loss, and even other teams’ results will shape their playoff fate in the coming weeks. Understanding the various scenarios—from clinching a spot outright to being eliminated—has become essential for following the team’s final stretch. Wild-Card Race Scenarios Outlined for the New York Jets breaks down the three core outcomes (best-case, competitive, worst-case), the key games that will decide each path, and the math behind how the Jets can secure their first playoff berth since 2010. This article uses NFL tiebreaker rules and remaining schedule data to provide clarity on what the Jets need to do—and what they need others to do—for a postseason spot.

Wild-Card Race Scenarios Outlined for the New York Jets starts with the best-case scenario: the Jets clinching a wild-card spot with a strong finish to the season. For this to happen, the Jets would need to win all four of their remaining games: against the Atlanta Falcons (Week 15), Jacksonville Jaguars (Week 16), New England Patriots (Week 17), and Miami Dolphins (Week 18). A 4-0 finish would push their record to 12-6, a mark that would likely secure them at least the No. 5 seed—if not higher, depending on how other teams perform. Even if they drop one game (finishing 11-7), the Jets could still clinch outright if the Browns lose two of their remaining four (vs. Bengals, Texans, Broncos, Ravens) and the Steelers lose one (vs. Seahawks, Cardinals, Bills, Browns). Key to this scenario is the Jets’ ability to beat divisional rivals: their Week 17 game against the Patriots (7-7) and Week 18 game against the Dolphins (10-4) are not just wins—they’re opportunities to improve their tiebreaker standing, as head-to-head results are the first tiebreaker between teams with the same record. A win over the Dolphins, for example, would give the Jets an edge if both teams end up tied for a wild-card spot.

Wild-Card Race Scenarios Outlined for the New York Jets also explores the competitive middle scenario: the Jets finish 2-2 in their remaining games (ending at 10-8) and need help from other teams to clinch. In this case, the Jets’ fate would hinge on losses by the Browns and Steelers. For example, if the Jets beat the Falcons and Patriots but lose to the Jaguars and Dolphins, they’d need the Browns to lose at least two of their final four (e.g., losses to the Bengals and Broncos) and the Steelers to lose at least one (e.g., a loss to the Bills). Another sub-scenario here involves tiebreakers: if the Jets and Steelers both finish 10-8, the Jets would win the tiebreaker if they beat the Patriots (since both teams have the same divisional record, the next tiebreaker is common opponents— the Jets would have a better record against shared foes like the Dolphins and Falcons). However, if the Jets lose to the Patriots, the Steelers could edge them out with a better divisional record. This middle scenario is the most likely, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), which gives the Jets a 45% chance of finishing 2-2 and a 30% chance of clinching a spot with help.

Wild-Card Race Scenarios Outlined for the New York Jets delves into how the New York Jets could be forced into a “must-win” situation in their final game against the Dolphins. If the Jets finish 1-3 in their next three games (Week 15-17), dropping to 9-9 heading into Week 18, their playoff hopes would boil down to beating the Dolphins and getting multiple favors from other teams. For this scenario to play out, the Jets would likely have lost to the Falcons, Jaguars, and Patriots—leaving them needing a win over Miami to get to 10-9. Even then, they’d need the Browns to lose at least three of their final four (e.g., losses to the Bengals, Texans, Broncos, and Ravens) and the Steelers to lose two (e.g., losses to the Seahawks and Bills). The New York Jets’ FPI odds in this scenario drop to just 12%, as it requires a near-collapse from both the Browns and Steelers. However, this scenario isn’t impossible: the Browns face a tough stretch against the Ravens and Texans, while the Steelers have to play the Bills and Browns in their final two games. For Jets fans, this scenario would mean a tense Week 18, where every play against the Dolphins could be the difference between a playoff spot and an early offseason.

Wild-Card Race Scenarios Outlined for the New York Jets includes the worst-case scenario: the Jets miss the playoffs entirely. This would happen if the Jets finish 0-4 or 1-3 in their remaining games, dropping to 8-8 or 9-9. For example, if the Jets lose to the Falcons, Jaguars, Patriots, and Dolphins (0-4), they’d finish 8-8—well behind the Browns (projected 11-6 by FPI) and Steelers (projected 10-7). Even a 1-3 finish (9-9) would leave them vulnerable if the Browns finish 10-6 and the Steelers finish 10-7. Another path to elimination: if the Jets lose to the Patriots and Dolphins, their divisional record would drop to 2-4, making it nearly impossible to win tiebreakers against the Steelers (who have a current 3-3 divisional record). The New York Jets’ FPI gives them a 25% chance of missing the playoffs entirely, with most models projecting elimination if they lose more than two of their final four games. This scenario would be a disappointment for a team that started the season 5-2, but it underscores how quickly fortunes can shift in the NFL—especially in a competitive AFC.

Wild-Card Race Scenarios Outlined for the New York Jets concludes with what each scenario means for the New York Jets’ strategy moving forward. In the best-case and middle scenarios, the Jets need to prioritize winning their winnable games first: the Falcons (8-5, but struggling on the road) and Patriots (7-7, with a banged-up secondary) are both teams the Jets can beat with strong performances from Zach Wilson and Breece Hall. In the “must-win Week 18” scenario, the Jets would need to focus on limiting turnovers (Wilson has thrown 12 interceptions this season) and leaning on their defense (which has 32 sacks) to slow down opponents like the Jaguars and Patriots. Even in the worst-case scenario, the Jets have incentives to play hard: finishing strong could help retain head coach Robert Saleh, who is in the final year of his contract, and build momentum for 2025. For fans, understanding these scenarios means watching not just Jets games, but also Browns and Steelers games—rooting for losses that could open the door for their team. In the end, Wild-Card Race Scenarios Outlined for the New York Jets is a reminder of the NFL’s unpredictability: no scenario is set in stone, and every play from here on out could write the next chapter of the Jets’ season—whether it ends in the playoffs or the offseason.