Inside the Numbers Breakdown Released by the Houston Texans

Ahead of their critical Week 18 AFC South matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, the Houston Texans have released a comprehensive “Inside the Numbers Breakdown”—a 36-page statistical report that distills the team’s performance across 15 regular-season games, identifies key trends, and highlights areas of strength and weakness heading into a win-or-go-home contest. Compiled by the Texans’ analytics department and coaching staff, the report blends traditional metrics (yards per play, sack rate) with advanced data (expected points added, coverage grade) to provide a holistic view of the team’s on-field performance. For a Texans team fighting for a playoff spot, the breakdown isn’t just a collection of numbers—it’s a strategic tool that will shape game plans, personnel decisions, and in-game adjustments against the Colts. Inside the Numbers Breakdown Released by the Houston Texans unpacks the report’s most revealing findings, how they align with the Texans’ playoff goals, and what they reveal about the team’s growth in 2028.

The report’s offensive section shines a light on the Texans’ run-heavy identity, which has been a cornerstone of their success this season. According to the breakdown, the Texans run the ball on 48% of their offensive snaps—the 7th-highest rate in the NFL—and average 4.6 yards per carry (12th in the league). What’s most notable, however, is their efficiency in short-yardage situations: the Texans convert 72% of third-and-1 or fourth-and-1 attempts, the 3rd-best rate in the NFL. This stat is critical against the Colts, whose run defense allows 5.1 yards per carry on short-yardage plays (26th in the league). The breakdown also highlights quarterback C.J. Stroud’s growth as a game manager: he has a 103.2 passer rating when the Texans lead by 7 points or fewer in the fourth quarter, the 5th-highest among NFL quarterbacks with at least 50 such attempts. “These numbers confirm what we’ve seen on the field—our run game sets the tone, and C.J. excels in high-pressure moments,” said Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik. The report includes play-by-play data showing that the Texans’ zone-running scheme is 18% more efficient than their gap scheme against 4-3 defenses (the Colts’ base alignment)—a detail that will likely influence their play-calling on Sunday. Inside the Numbers Breakdown Released by the Houston Texans frames these offensive stats as a blueprint for exploiting the Colts’ defensive vulnerabilities.

On defense, the breakdown reveals a Texans unit that has improved dramatically against the pass but still faces challenges against dual-threat quarterbacks—like the Colts’ Anthony Richardson. According to the report, the Texans rank 15th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (225) but jump to 8th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.2)—a sign of disciplined coverage that limits big plays. However, against quarterbacks with at least 50 rushing yards this season, the Texans’ defensive efficiency drops by 23%: opposing dual-threat QBs average 8.1 yards per pass attempt and 5.2 yards per carry against them. This is a red flag for Richardson, who has 450 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns in 2028. The breakdown also highlights the impact of recent signee Mario Addison: in his two games with the Texans, the team’s sack rate increased from 5.2% to 7.8%, and opposing quarterbacks have been pressured on 31% of their dropbacks (up from 25fore his arrival). “The numbers tell us we need to adjust our pass-rush schemes to contain Richardson’s mobility,” said Texans defensive coordinator Matt Burke. The report includes heat maps showing Richardson’s tendency to scramble to his right (68% of his rushing attempts) —a detail the Texans’ defense will likely target with edge-setting drills in practice. Inside the Numbers Breakdown Released by the Houston Texans explores how these defensive stats are guiding adjustments to neutralize the Colts’ biggest offensive threat.

For the Houston Texans, the special teams section of the breakdown underscores why this unit could be a difference-maker against the Colts. The report shows that kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn is at his most reliable in dome stadiums—like Lucas Oil Stadium, where the Colts play—converting 91% of his field goals (20 of 22) in indoor settings, compared to 82% outdoors. This stat is crucial, as the game is expected to be close, and a late field goal could decide the outcome. The breakdown also highlights the Colts’ weakness in kickoff coverage: they allow 24.3 yards per kickoff return (27th in the NFL), while the Texans’ return unit—led by Dameon Pierce—averages 21.8 yards per return (14th in the league). “Fairbairn’s indoor accuracy and our return unit’s efficiency are two edges we can exploit,” said Texans special teams coordinator Frank Ross. The report includes a breakdown of Colts kicker Rodrigo Blankenship’s struggles from long range: he has missed 4 of his 8 field goal attempts from 50+ yards this season, which could influence the Texans’ decision to force the Colts into long field goal tries. For the Houston Texans, these special teams numbers aren’t just interesting stats—they’re actionable insights that could tip the scales in a tightly contested game. Inside the Numbers Breakdown Released by the Houston Texans emphasizes how special teams data is shaping the unit’s game plan for Sunday.

Another key section of the breakdown focuses on player matchups that will define the Texans-Colts game, using advanced metrics to identify favorable and unfavorable scenarios. For example, the report shows that Texans left tackle Laremy Tunsil has allowed just 1 sack and 6 pressures in his last 5 games—a 92.3 pass-blocking grade from Pro Football Focus (PFF), the 3rd-highest among NFL tackles. He’ll likely face Colts edge rusher Kwity Paye (6.5 sacks), who has a 78.1 PFF pass-rushing grade against right tackles but drops to 67.8 against left tackles. This mismatch favors the Texans, as Tunsil’s consistency could limit Paye’s impact. On the other side, Colts cornerback Kenny Moore II has a 88.2 PFF coverage grade against slot receivers, which is a concern for Texans slot receiver Nico Collins (who lines up in the slot 42% of the time). The breakdown recommends that the Texans shift Collins to the outside more frequently to avoid Moore, a adjustment that could increase Collins’ target share. “These matchup numbers help us put our players in positions to succeed,” Slowik said. For the Houston Texans, this granular player data is critical to outmaneuvering the Colts’ defense and creating scoring opportunities. Inside the Numbers Breakdown Released by the Houston Texans examines how these matchup insights are driving personnel rotations and route design.

Finally, the breakdown includes a season-long trend analysis that puts the Texans’ breakthrough season in context—and provides motivation heading into the Colts game. The report shows that the Texans have improved their win total by 6 games compared to 2027 (from 3-13 to 9-6), the 3rd-largest turnaround in the NFL this season. Their point differential has also jumped from -182 in 2027 to +42 in 2028, a 224-point swing that ranks 1st in the league. Perhaps most importantly, the Texans have won 8 of their last 10 games, and during that stretch, they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 7.3 points per game in the fourth quarter—signaling a resilience that bodes well for a close contest against the Colts. “These trends aren’t accidents—they’re the result of hard work, discipline, and a commitment to our system,” said Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans. The report concludes with a statistical projection: based on their performance against teams with similar records to the Colts (8-7), the Texans have a 58% chance of winning Sunday’s game—though the analytics team notes that “playoff intensity can shift probabilities, and execution will be the final determinant.” For the Houston Texans, this trend analysis is more than just a look back—it’s a reminder of how far they’ve come, and a call to finish the job. Inside the Numbers Breakdown Released by the Houston Texans concludes by noting that while numbers provide guidance, it’s the players’ ability to translate these insights into action that will ultimately decide their playoff fate. As the Texans prepare for the Colts, they’ll carry this breakdown with them—not as a guarantee of success, but as a roadmap to achieving it.