PFF Projects 7.8 Wins for Up-and-Coming Indianapolis Colts

As the NFL offseason gives way to training camp, Pro Football Focus (PFF)—a leading authority on football analytics—has released its annual win projections for all 32 teams, with a notable outlook for the Indianapolis Colts: a projected 7.8 wins for the 2024 season. This number marks a significant uptick from the Colts’ 5-win campaign in 2023, reflecting PFF’s recognition of the team’s offseason moves, young talent development, and improved roster depth. Unlike more optimistic fan or media predictions that often lean on hype, PFF’s projections are rooted in data—including player performance grades, positional strength rankings, and historical trends of teams in similar rebuild phases. For an Colts team labeled “up-and-coming” after a season of promising flashes, this 7.8-win projection isn’t just a number; it’s a validation that their rebuild is on track, even if it hasn’t yet reached playoff contention. PFF Projects 7.8 Wins for Up-and-Coming Indianapolis Colts is a realistic benchmark that balances potential with the challenges of a competitive AFC South.

PFF’s projection heavily factors in the Colts’ offensive improvement, particularly the growth of key young players and strategic offseason additions. At the center of this optimism is second-year quarterback Gardner Minshew, who earned a PFF grade of 76.2 in 2023—above the league average for starting QBs—and is projected to improve to 78.5 in 2024 as he gains familiarity with head coach Shane Steichen’s system. The addition of veteran wide receiver Tyler Boyd, who holds a career PFF grade of 81.3 and excels in slot routes, is expected to boost the passing game, while running back Jonathan Taylor’s return to full health (he posted a 82.1 rushing grade in 2022 before injuries limited him in 2023) strengthens the ground attack. PFF also highlights the offensive line’s progress: left tackle Bernhard Raimann (79.4 pass-blocking grade in 2023) and center Ryan Kelly (77.8 overall grade) form a stable core, and rookie guard Blake Freeland (a 88.0 college PFF grade) is projected to contribute immediately. These offensive pieces, when combined, give the Colts a unit that PFF ranks 18th in the NFL—up from 25th last season. PFF Projects 7.8 Wins for Up-and-Coming Indianapolis Colts is driven in large part by this offensive upward trajectory.

On the defensive side, PFF’s projection acknowledges both progress and lingering questions, which is why the win total falls just short of playoff contention. The Colts’ defensive line is a bright spot: defensive end Yannick Ngakoue (84.3 pass-rushing grade in 2023) is a consistent threat, and second-year safety Nick Cross (76.5 overall grade in 2023, up from 68.1 as a rookie) has emerged as a playmaker in the secondary. PFF also notes the addition of veteran linebacker Bobby Wagner, who holds a career PFF grade of 85.1 and brings much-needed leadership to a unit that ranked 24th in total defense last season. However, the projection flags the cornerback position as a potential weakness: while Derek Stingley Jr. showed flashes (71.2 coverage grade), he’s yet to stay healthy for a full season, and the depth behind him is unproven. This mix of strength and uncertainty leads PFF to rank the Colts’ defense 22nd in the league—an improvement from 28th in 2023 but not enough to push the win total higher. PFF Projects 7.8 Wins for Up-and-Coming Indianapolis Colts reflects this defensive balance, as the unit is better but not yet elite.

A critical component of PFF’s projection is the Indianapolis Colts’ schedule, which PFF rates as the 16th-toughest in the NFL—a manageable slate that allows for growth without overwhelming a young team. The Colts face six games against teams PFF projects to win 10+ games (including the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens), but they also have eight matchups against teams projected to win fewer than 8 games (such as the Tennessee Titans and Arizona Cardinals). This mix is ideal for an up-and-coming team: the tough games provide a chance to test growth, while the winnable ones allow for building momentum. PFF specifically highlights the Colts’ four divisional games against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans as “swing matchups”—games the Colts could win if their young players step up. For example, PFF gives the Colts a 52% chance to win their home game against the Texans in Week 6 and a 48% chance to upset the Jaguars in Week 12. This schedule balance is a key reason PFF’s projection lands at 7.8 wins, as it avoids the “gauntlet” schedules that derail rebuilding teams. PFF Projects 7.8 Wins for Up-and-Coming Indianapolis Colts is shaped by this favorable yet challenging slate.

PFF’s projection also accounts for the Indianapolis Colts’ depth—a factor often overlooked but critical for sustaining success through a 17-game season. The Colts’ offseason moves focused on adding reliable backups: at quarterback, they signed veteran Sam Ehlinger (70.3 career PFF grade) to back up Minshew; at running back, Devin Singletary (75.1 rushing grade in 2023) provides depth behind Taylor; and on defense, defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins (72.8 overall grade) adds rotational talent to the line. PFF’s model shows that teams with strong depth win an average of 1.2 more games per season than teams with thin rosters, as they’re better able to handle injuries. The Colts learned this lesson in 2023, when injuries to Taylor and multiple offensive linemen derailed their season. This year, PFF projects the Colts to have 12 key players miss time (close to the league average), but their improved depth will limit the impact of those absences. For the Indianapolis Colts, this depth isn’t just about avoiding collapse—it’s about maintaining consistency, which PFF says is critical for hitting the 7.8-win mark. PFF Projects 7.8 Wins for Up-and-Coming Indianapolis Colts is a nod to the team’s smart offseason focus on depth.

Looking beyond the win total, PFF’s projection sends a clear message about the Indianapolis Colts’ trajectory: they’re on the right path, but patience is still needed. A 7.8-win season would likely leave the Colts just outside the playoff picture (the AFC typically requires 9+ wins for a wild-card spot), but it would represent a 2.8-win improvement—one of the largest in the league. PFF also notes that the projection has a “high variance”: if Cross and Stingley take another step forward, and Minshew plays at a Pro Bowl level, the Colts could win 9+ games; if injuries strike key players or the cornerback position struggles, they could fall to 6 wins. This variance is typical for up-and-coming teams, as their success hinges on young talent reaching its potential. For the Indianapolis Colts, the 7.8-win projection is both a goal and a starting point—it shows they’re no longer a bottom-feeder but not yet a contender. PFF Projects 7.8 Wins for Up-and-Coming Indianapolis Colts is more than a prediction; it’s a roadmap for the season, highlighting what the team needs to do to exceed expectations and take the next step in their rebuild.