EPA Per Play: Indianapolis Colts Offense Ranks 22nd League-Wide

In the data-driven landscape of the NFL, Expected Points Added (EPA) per play has emerged as a critical metric for evaluating offensive efficiency, measuring how much a team’s plays contribute to its likelihood of scoring compared to league averages. For the Indianapolis Colts, the 2025 season has brought a sobering reality: their offense currently ranks 22nd league-wide in EPA per play, a statistic that highlights gaps between their performance and the NFL’s top offensive units. This ranking isn’t just a number—it’s a reflection of the Colts’ struggles to convert opportunities into points, whether through inconsistent third-down conversions, red-zone inefficiency, or slow starts in games. While the Colts boast talent at key positions, including running back Jonathan Taylor and wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr., their inability to consistently generate positive EPA per play has held back their overall competitiveness. EPA Per Play: Indianapolis Colts Offense Ranks 22nd League-Wide serves as a wake-up call for the franchise, urging coaches and players to identify flaws in their approach and make adjustments to climb the rankings as the season progresses.

A closer look at the Colts’ EPA per play breakdown reveals specific areas where their offense has faltered, shedding light on why EPA Per Play: Indianapolis Colts Offense Ranks 22nd League-Wide. One of the biggest pain points is third-down efficiency: the Colts rank 26th in the NFL in third-down conversion rate (35.2%), and their EPA per third-down play (-0.12) is well below the league average of 0.08. This struggle stems from a combination of predictable playcalling and inconsistent execution—opposing defenses often anticipate run plays on short third downs, forcing the Colts into long-yardage situations, while quarterback Daniel Jones has occasionally misread coverages or missed open receivers on passing downs. The red zone tells a similar story: the Colts rank 24th in red-zone touchdown rate (47.8%), with their EPA per red-zone play (-0.34) trailing teams that regularly capitalize on close-range opportunities. Additionally, the Colts’ slow-starting offense has hurt their EPA numbers; they average just 0.02 EPA per play in the first quarter, compared to the league average of 0.15, putting them in early holes that are hard to climb out of. These specific inefficiencies have collectively dragged down their overall EPA per play, cementing their 22nd-place ranking. EPA Per Play: Indianapolis Colts Offense Ranks 22nd League-Wide thus isn’t a result of broad failure, but of targeted weaknesses that need strategic fixes.

Context matters when evaluating the Colts’ EPA per play ranking, as external factors have played a role in their offensive struggles—though they don’t fully excuse EPA Per Play: Indianapolis Colts Offense Ranks 22nd League-Wide. One significant challenge has been injuries to the offensive line: the Colts have started four different right tackle combinations this season due to injuries to Braden Smith and backup Blake Freeland, leading to inconsistent pass protection and run blocking. When the offensive line is unstable, Jones has less time to make decisions in the pocket, and Taylor faces more stacked boxes as defenses exploit gaps in the line. Another factor is schedule strength: the Colts have faced six top-10 defensive units in terms of EPA per play, including the Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars, which has suppressed their offensive output. However, even against weaker defenses, the Colts have failed to capitalize—their EPA per play against bottom-10 defenses (0.15) is still below the league average of 0.22, indicating internal issues rather than just tough matchups. While these external factors have contributed to their ranking, they highlight the need for the Colts to build a more resilient offense that can adapt to adversity. EPA Per Play: Indianapolis Colts Offense Ranks 22nd League-Wide thus underscores the importance of consistency, even when faced with challenges.

The Indianapolis Colts’ coaching staff has begun to address their EPA per play struggles with targeted adjustments, a critical step toward improving their 22nd-place ranking and reversing EPA Per Play: Indianapolis Colts Offense Ranks 22nd League-Wide. Offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter has shifted to more pre-snap motion and formation diversity to counter predictable playcalling, using tight ends and running backs in unexpected roles to confuse defenses. For example, the Colts have started using Taylor as a slot receiver on third downs, creating mismatches against slower linebackers and generating more positive EPA on passing plays. The coaching staff has also focused on red-zone efficiency, implementing shorter, quicker passing routes to avoid sacks and relying on Taylor’s power in goal-line situations to boost touchdown rates. Additionally, the Indianapolis Colts have adjusted their practice routine to simulate high-pressure moments, running extra third-down and red-zone drills to build muscle memory and confidence. These changes have already shown small signs of progress: in their most recent game, the Colts posted 0.18 EPA per play—their highest mark of the season—suggesting that their adjustments are starting to pay off. The Indianapolis Colts’ willingness to adapt is key to climbing the EPA rankings, as it shows a commitment to fixing flaws rather than repeating ineffective strategies. EPA Per Play: Indianapolis Colts Offense Ranks 22nd League-Wide thus could be a temporary setback if these adjustments continue to yield results.

Player execution will be just as important as coaching adjustments in lifting the Indianapolis Colts out of their 22nd-place EPA per play ranking, as individual performances have directly impacted EPA Per Play: Indianapolis Colts Offense Ranks 22nd League-Wide. Jones, in particular, has room to improve: his decision-making on deep passes (he has a 3.2% interception rate on deep throws, above the league average of 2.1%) and his ability to extend plays with his legs (he’s averaging 2.8 yards per scramble, down from 3.9 last season) have hurt the Colts’ EPA. However, Jones has shown flashes of growth—he completed 72% of his passes in the Colts’ recent win, with an EPA per pass play of 0.25—and working with quarterbacks coach Scott Milanovich on pre-snap reads could help him make more consistent choices. Taylor, too, has a role to play: while he’s averaging 4.6 yards per carry, he’s been tackled behind the line of scrimmage on 12% of his runs, above his career average of 8%, and improving his ability to read blocks early could reduce negative plays. The Indianapolis Colts’ wide receivers also need to step up—Pittman Jr. has been reliable (6.2 yards per target), but other receivers have struggled with drops (a 7.8% drop rate, above the league average of 6.5%), leading to missed opportunities for positive EPA. The Indianapolis Colts’ players have the talent to improve their execution; it’s a matter of translating practice reps into in-game consistency. EPA Per Play: Indianapolis Colts Offense Ranks 22nd League-Wide thus hinges on whether players can turn coaching adjustments into tangible on-field results.

Looking ahead, the Indianapolis Colts have a path to climb the EPA per play rankings, but it will require sustained effort and collaboration to move past EPA Per Play: Indianapolis Colts Offense Ranks 22nd League-Wide. The remaining schedule works in their favor: they face seven teams with defensive EPA per play rankings in the bottom half of the league, giving them opportunities to rack up positive EPA and improve their standing. Additionally, the return of a healthy offensive line—Smith is expected back from injury in the next two weeks—will stabilize pass protection and run blocking, creating better conditions for Jones and Taylor to succeed. The Indianapolis Colts also have the benefit of a bye week coming up, which will allow coaches to refine their adjustments and players to heal and practice new strategies without the pressure of an upcoming game. If the Colts can maintain their recent improvement in third-down and red-zone efficiency, and if players like Jones and the wide receivers reduce mistakes, there’s no reason they can’t move into the top 15 in EPA per play by season’s end. This climb isn’t just about improving a statistic—it’s about becoming a more consistent, competitive offense that can support the Colts’ playoff aspirations. EPA Per Play: Indianapolis Colts Offense Ranks 22nd League-Wide thus represents a challenge, but also an opportunity for the Colts to prove they can adapt and grow into a more efficient offensive unit.