Playoff Scenarios Favor the Surging Denver Broncos

As the 2024 NFL regular season enters its final weeks, the Denver Broncos find themselves in an enviable position: a surging 10-5 record, a two-game lead in the AFC wildcard race, and a slate of remaining matchups that tilt heavily in their favor. After a 6-1 stretch that transformed them from playoff longshots to legitimate contenders, the Broncos now face playoff scenarios that reward their late-season momentum—from winnable games to favorable tiebreakers and potential matchups against teams they’ve already defeated. This confluence of factors has analysts and fans alike viewing the Broncos as a dark horse to not just make the playoffs, but advance deep into the postseason. Playoff Scenarios Favor the Surging Denver Broncos explores their remaining schedule advantages, tiebreaker edges, potential first-round matchups, how their balanced play fits playoff football, and why their current form makes them a threat to upset higher-seeded teams.

Playoff Scenarios Favor the Surging Denver Broncos begins with the Broncos’ remaining schedule, which offers a clear path to locking up a playoff spot. Their final two games are against the Los Angeles Chargers (6-9, already eliminated from playoff contention) and the Arizona Cardinals (5-10, also out of the race)—teams that lack the talent and motivation to slow down a Broncos team playing with playoff urgency. The Chargers, who have struggled defensively all season (ranking 26th in points allowed), have already lost to the Broncos twice this season—including a 34-17 blowout in Week 8 where Denver’s offense piled up 420 total yards. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have the league’s worst run defense (allowing 165 rushing yards per game), which plays directly into the Broncos’ strength: Javonte Williams’ physical running style (890 yards, 6 touchdowns) and a offensive line that has allowed just 23 sacks all season. “Our remaining schedule is a gift, but it’s also a test of focus,” said Broncos head coach Sean Payton. “We can’t take these teams lightly, but we know that winning out will secure our spot and potentially let us climb the rankings. That’s our goal.” A two-game winning streak would push the Broncos to 12-5, a record that all but guarantees a top-six seed in the AFC.

Playoff Scenarios Favor the Surging Denver Broncos next delves into the Broncos’ tiebreaker advantages, which provide a safety net if they stumble in one of their remaining games. Thanks to their head-to-head wins over key competitors—including a 27-24 overtime victory over the Las Vegas Raiders and a 31-24 win over the Houston Texans—the Broncos hold the upper hand in tiebreaker scenarios against both teams. If the Broncos finish with the same record as the Raiders (currently 9-6) or Texans (8-7), they would earn the higher seed by virtue of their direct wins. They also hold a tiebreaker edge over the Indianapolis Colts (10-5) if the two teams finish tied: the Broncos’ strength of schedule is slightly weaker than the Colts’, but their better record in common opponents (6-2 vs. the Colts’ 5-3) would give them the edge. “Tiebreakers are something we talk about in our meetings,” said Broncos general manager George Paton. “We know that every win—especially against divisional and conference opponents—matters beyond just the standings. It gives us security if things get tight at the end.” This tiebreaker cushion means the Broncos could afford a loss to the Chargers or Cardinals and still retain a playoff spot, though Payton has emphasized that “winning out is the only way to ensure we don’t leave anything to chance.”

Playoff Scenarios Favor the Surging Denver Broncos covers the potential first-round matchups that await the Broncos, most of which align with their strengths. If they finish as the fifth or sixth seed, they’re likely to face either the Texans, Raiders, or Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7)—all teams they’ve already beaten this season. The Texans, who rely heavily on rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud’s passing (3,800 yards, 26 touchdowns), have struggled against strong pass rushes (allowing 40 sacks), which plays into the Broncos’ biggest strength: Nik Bonitto’s dominant pressure (12 sacks, 45 total pressures) and a defense that ranks third in the AFC in sacks (38). The Raiders, meanwhile, have one of the league’s worst red-zone defenses (allowing touchdowns on 68% of opponents’ red-zone trips), which benefits the Broncos’ efficient red-zone offense (touchdown rate of 63%, 10th in the NFL). For the Denver Broncos, these matchups are favorable not just because of past success, but because they allow the team to play to its strengths: a balanced offense that controls the clock and a defense that disrupts quarterbacks. “We’ve already proven we can beat these teams,” said Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3,400 yards, 24 touchdowns, 7 interceptions). “We know their tendencies, we know their weaknesses, and we know how to exploit them. That’s a huge advantage in the playoffs.”

Another layer of Playoff Scenarios Favor the Surging Denver Broncos is how their balanced style of play aligns with the physical, low-scoring nature of playoff football. Unlike teams that rely heavily on the pass (like the Buffalo Bills or Kansas City Chiefs), the Broncos have built their success on a “ground-and-pound” offense that controls time of possession (ranking 8th in the NFL at 31:20 per game) and a defense that limits big plays (allowing just 32 plays of 20+ yards, 7th fewest in the league). This style is ideal for playoff football, where turnovers and field position often decide games. The Broncos have been one of the most disciplined teams in the NFL down the stretch: they’ve committed just 8 turnovers in their past 7 games (fewest in the AFC) and have won the field position battle in 6 of those 7 contests. “Playoff football is about controlling what you can control,” said Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph. “You can’t rely on big plays—you have to grind, you have to avoid mistakes, and you have to win the line of scrimmage. That’s exactly how we play.” For the Denver Broncos, this disciplined, balanced approach reduces the risk of costly upsets and makes them a tough out for any higher-seeded team—even powerhouses like the Baltimore Ravens or Chiefs.

Playoff Scenarios Favor the Surging Denver Broncos wraps up with why their current momentum is the most valuable asset in their playoff chase. The Broncos have won 6 of their past 7 games, and during that stretch, every phase of their team has clicked: the offense has averaged 28 points per game, the defense has allowed just 18 points per game, and special teams have been near-perfect (Wil Lutz’s 92% field goal rate, Riley Dixon’s 45.2-yard punt average). This momentum has translated to confidence—both in the locker room and on the field. Players have spoken of a “next-man-up” mentality that has kept the team resilient even when key players (like defensive tackle Mike Purcell) have missed time, and coaches have praised the team’s work ethic and focus. “Momentum is real in this league,” said Payton. “When you win games, you build confidence, you learn how to close out tight contests, and you start to believe that you can win no matter what. That’s the mindset we have right now.” For the Denver Broncos, this momentum—combined with favorable schedules, tiebreakers, and matchups—has created a perfect storm of playoff opportunity. As they head into the final weeks of the regular season, one thing is clear: the stars are aligning for the surging Broncos to make a deep postseason run.