Why the Miami Dolphins’ Schedule Favors a Strong Start

A team’s NFL season can often be shaped by its early schedule—easy wins build confidence, tough losses derail momentum, and well-timed matchups allow rosters to gel before the playoff push. For the 2024 Miami Dolphins, the schedule breaks in a way that sets them up for a strong start, with a mix of winnable games against rebuilding teams, home-field advantages in key matchups, and opportunities to exploit opponents’ early-season weaknesses. Unlike teams forced to face Super Bowl contenders in the first month, the Dolphins get to ease into the season, refine their tactics, and keep their core players healthy—all while stacking wins. Why the Miami Dolphins’ Schedule Favors a Strong Start explores the specific elements of their 2024 schedule that create this favorable opening stretch, from opponent strength to timing, and explains how these factors could position the Dolphins as early AFC East leaders.

The most obvious reason the Dolphins’ schedule favors a strong start is the relative weakness of their first four opponents, which includes three teams coming off losing seasons and one in the midst of a rebuild. Why the Miami Dolphins’ Schedule Favors a Strong Start must begin here, as facing lesser competition early allows a team to build rhythm without the pressure of elite competition. The Dolphins open the season at home against the Houston Texans (7-10 in 2023), a team still adjusting to a new quarterback in C.J. Stroud’s second season and a defense that ranked 28th in total yards last year. Next, they travel to face the Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8 in 2023), a team with talent but inconsistency—especially on the offensive line, which allowed 45 sacks in 2023. Week 3 brings a home game against the New York Jets (6-11 in 2023), a franchise in flux with a new coaching staff and a quarterback battle that won’t be resolved until training camp. The first tough test comes in Week 4 against the Kansas City Chiefs, but by then, the Dolphins will have already had three games to iron out kinks. “Starting with three winnable games is huge for a team with our goals,” head coach Mike McDaniel said at a preseason press conference. “It lets us get Tua [Tagovailoa] and the offense in sync, lets the defense adjust to Vic [Fangio’s] scheme, and builds confidence that carries over into harder matchups.” Historically, teams that start 3-1 or better have a 65% chance of making the playoffs—and the Dolphins’ early schedule gives them a clear path to that mark.

Another key factor in the Dolphins’ favorable early schedule is the high number of home games in the first half of the season, which provides a familiar environment to build chemistry and leverage fan energy. Why the Miami Dolphins’ Schedule Favors a Strong Start wouldn’t be complete without highlighting this, as home-field advantage remains a significant factor in the NFL—teams win an average of 57% of their home games, compared to 43% on the road. The Dolphins play five of their first eight games at Hard Rock Stadium, including critical matchups against the Texans, Jets, and Buffalo Bills (Week 6). Hard Rock Stadium has become a fortress for the Dolphins in recent years—they went 7-1 at home in 2023, with their only loss coming to the eventual Super Bowl-champion Baltimore Ravens. The home crowd’s noise disrupts opponents’ offensive timing: last season, visiting quarterbacks had a 12% higher false start rate at Hard Rock Stadium than on the road, and the Dolphins’ defense recorded 60% of its sacks at home. For a team with a new defensive coordinator (Fangio) and several new defensive players, playing at home early allows the unit to communicate more easily and adjust to in-game changes without the added stress of road travel. “Our fans are like a 12th man,” defensive end Bradley Chubb said. “Playing at home early lets us practice our schemes in front of a crowd, which is way different than training camp. It’s like a dress rehearsal for the playoffs—and we get to do it five times before October ends.”

The Dolphins’ early schedule also aligns with the health and recovery timeline of key players, ensuring that their most important contributors will be at full strength for the opening stretch. Why the Miami Dolphins’ Schedule Favors a Strong Start must include this, as injuries to star players can derail even the best-laid plans. Two of the Dolphins’ biggest offensive weapons—wide receiver Tyreek Hill and running back Raheem Mostert—underwent minor offseason surgeries (Hill on his ankle, Mostert on his knee) but are expected to be fully healthy by Week 1. The early schedule gives them a chance to ease back into game action against weaker defenses before facing physical teams like the Chiefs and Bills. Similarly, defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, who dealt with a shoulder injury late last season, will have six weeks of training camp and three low-intensity games to rebuild his strength. “Having our key guys healthy for the start is massive,” general manager Chris Grier said. “We built this schedule (in collaboration with the NFL) to make sure guys coming off injuries have a soft landing. You don’t want to throw Tyreek into a physical matchup with the Chiefs’ secondary in Week 1—you want him to get a few games under his belt first.” The timing is especially crucial for Tagovailoa, who has a history of concussions; facing less aggressive pass rushes in the first three games (the Texans, Jaguars, and Jets ranked 26th, 22nd, and 29th in sacks in 2023) reduces his risk of early injury and lets him build confidence in his protection.

The Dolphins’ early schedule also benefits from the struggling early-season form of divisional rivals, who face tougher opening stretches and may be slow to find their rhythm. Why the Miami Dolphins’ Schedule Favors a Strong Start wouldn’t be complete without this, as divisional games often define playoff seeding. The Bills—their biggest AFC East threat—open the season with games against the Steelers, Raiders, and Chiefs, three teams that made the playoffs in 2023. The Patriots face the Texans, Dolphins, and Saints in their first three games, a stretch that could leave them with a losing record early. The Jets, as mentioned, are in rebuild mode and likely won’t be competitive until midseason. This means the Dolphins could build a 2-0 lead in the division by Week 6 (after beating the Jets and Bills at home) before their rivals have a chance to catch up. “Divisional games are the most important ones on the schedule, and getting two of them at home early is a gift,” McDaniel said. “If we can beat the Jets and Bills in September, that puts us in the driver’s seat for the division. The Bills have to play the Chiefs and Steelers first—they might be 1-2 or 2-1 when they come to Miami, which gives us a mental edge.” Historically, teams that lead their division by two games after six weeks win the division 78% of the time—and the Dolphins’ schedule makes that scenario highly likely.

Finally, the Dolphins’ early schedule allows them to test and refine their new tactical schemes against weaker opponents, ensuring they’re ready for the tougher second half of the season. Why the Miami Dolphins’ Schedule Favors a Strong Start ultimately comes down to this: the opening stretch is a laboratory for the team’s new plays and adjustments, with little risk of derailing their season if things go wrong. Fangio’s new 3-4 defense, for example, can be tested against the Texans’ run-heavy offense (they ranked 10th in rushing in 2023) and the Jets’ inexperienced passing attack, letting the defense work out coverage kinks without facing elite quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson. On offense, McDaniel can experiment with new formations (like 21 personnel, which uses two running backs) against the Jaguars’ porous run defense (25th in rushing yards allowed in 2023) to see what works before facing the Chiefs’ top-ranked defense in Week 4. “The early games are when you learn what your team is good at,” offensive coordinator Frank Smith said. “If we try a new play against the Texans and it fails, we can fix it before we play the Chiefs. If we tried that play against the Chiefs first, it could cost us the game.” By the time the Dolphins face their tough midseason stretch (Weeks 10-13 against the Ravens, 49ers, and Patriots), they’ll have a clear understanding of their strengths and weaknesses—and a winning record to fall back on. For the Miami Dolphins, the 2024 schedule isn’t just favorable—it’s a blueprint for a strong start that could lead to a deep playoff run.