Shot at Top Seed in AFC for the Denver Broncos

After defying all odds to turn a “projected worst” season into an AFC West title race, the Denver Broncos entered the final month of the 2025 NFL season with an even loftier goal: a shot at the AFC’s No. 1 seed. What began as a campaign to prove doubters wrong had evolved into a legitimate pursuit of home-field advantage throughout the playoffs—a prize that would grant them a first-round bye and avoid early matchups with other title contenders. Shot at Top Seed in AFC for the Denver Broncos isn’t just about a statistical race; it’s about a team that refused to cap its potential, turning every win into a statement and every challenge into an opportunity. For a franchise that hadn’t tasted elite success since 2015, the top seed represents more than a playoff berth—it’s a return to the NFL’s upper echelon.

Shot at Top Seed in AFC for the Denver Broncos gained clarity in Week 13, when the Broncos defeated the Buffalo Bills 27-24 in overtime—a win that catapulted them into a three-way tie for the AFC’s best record (10-2) alongside the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs. The game, which featured a 90-yard fourth-quarter drive led by Russell Wilson and a game-winning field goal from Wil Lutz, showcased the Broncos’ ability to beat fellow contenders—a critical requirement for earning the top seed. “This win wasn’t just about staying in the race,” said head coach Sean Payton after the game. “It was about proving we belong in the conversation with the best teams in the AFC. You can’t get the top seed by beating bad teams—you have to beat the Bills, the Chiefs, the Ravens. Today, we did that.” The victory also highlighted the Broncos’ balance: their offense scored 27 points against a Bills defense that ranked top-five in points allowed, while their defense forced three turnovers and sacked Josh Allen twice. By the end of Week 13, NFL analysts had updated their projections, giving the Broncos a 35% chance of securing the top seed—up from just 5% at the start of the season.

Shot at Top Seed in AFC for the Denver Broncos hinges on their performance in three critical late-season matchups: a Week 14 rematch with the Chiefs, a Week 16 showdown with the Ravens, and a Week 17 game against the Los Angeles Rams. The Week 14 game against Kansas City, in particular, is a make-or-break moment: the Chiefs, who had lost to the Broncos earlier in the season, would reclaim sole possession of the AFC West with a win, while a Broncos victory would give them a two-game lead in the division and a head-to-head tiebreaker over Kansas City. “This game is everything,” said Wilson. “We know what’s at stake—not just for the division, but for the top seed. The Chiefs are a great team, but we’ve proven we can beat them. Now we have to do it again.” The Broncos’ defense, which had sacked Patrick Mahomes four times in their first meeting, will face a Chiefs offense that has since added a new wide receiver, making the rematch even more unpredictable. For the Broncos, every play in these three games will shape their playoff destiny—win two of three, and they’ll likely secure a top-two seed; win all three, and the top seed could be theirs.

Shot at Top Seed in AFC for the Denver Broncos is also bolstered by their strength of schedule and tiebreakers—a often-overlooked factor that could decide the race. The Broncos’ remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .520, slightly lower than the Chiefs’ (.550) and Ravens’ (.570), giving them a better chance to finish with a higher record. Additionally, the Broncos hold head-to-head tiebreakers over the Chiefs (having beaten them once) and the Bills (having beaten them once), which would give them the edge if they finish with the same record as those teams. “Tiebreakers matter, especially when the top seed is on the line,” said general manager George Paton. “We built our schedule by winning the games we should win and beating the teams we needed to beat—and that’s put us in a good position with tiebreakers. If it comes down to it, those head-to-head wins could be the difference.” The Denver Broncos’ focus on winning close games—they had won eight games by seven points or fewer through Week 13—has also prepared them for the tight race ahead. In the NFL, where one play can change a season, the Broncos’ ability to perform under pressure could be the key to outlasting the Chiefs and Ravens.

Shot at Top Seed in AFC for the Denver Broncos is further supported by their healthy roster—a luxury that not all contenders enjoy. Unlike the Ravens, who have lost two starting offensive linemen to injury, and the Chiefs, who are dealing with a hamstring injury to Travis Kelce, the Broncos have stayed relatively healthy, with only one starter (defensive end Zach Allen) listed as questionable for Week 14. This health has allowed the Broncos to maintain consistency on both sides of the ball: their offense has used the same starting five offensive linemen for 12 straight games, while their defense has kept 10 of 11 starters on the field all season. “Health is the unsung hero of any playoff run,” said Payton. “We’ve been lucky, but we’ve also worked hard to keep our players in shape and avoid unnecessary risks. When you have your best players on the field in December, you have a chance to win every game.” The Denver Broncos’ training staff, which has implemented a new recovery program this season, deserves credit for keeping the team healthy—a factor that could give them an edge in the grueling stretch run.

Shot at Top Seed in AFC for the Denver Broncos is ultimately about seizing an opportunity that few thought possible. Just months ago, the Broncos were written off as the worst team in the AFC West; now, they’re one of three teams vying for the conference’s top seed. For the players, the chase is about more than personal glory—it’s about honoring the franchise’s legacy and rewarding the fans who stuck with them through tough times. “This is why we play football,” said linebacker Drew Sanders. “To be in a position to compete for the top seed, to have a chance to host a Super Bowl run—this is what every kid dreams of.” For the Broncos, securing the top seed would mean avoiding the chaos of the first round of the playoffs and getting a week off to rest and prepare. It would also mean playing their first two playoff games at Empower Field at Mile High, where they have a 7-1 record this season. While the race will be tight, the Broncos have proven they thrive on being underdogs. In the end, Shot at Top Seed in AFC for the Denver Broncos is a story of perseverance—a reminder that in the NFL, no dream is too big, and no team is ever truly out of the race until the final whistle blows.