Miami Dolphins’ Draft Strategy: Hits and Misses

The NFL Draft is the lifeblood of every franchise— a chance to replenish talent, fill longstanding needs, and lay the groundwork for future success. For the Miami Dolphins, the past decade has been a mix of shrewd picks that shaped their current contender status and costly misses that  (delayed) their rebuild. Under general manager Chris Grier, who took over in 2016, the Dolphins’ draft strategy has evolved from “quantity over quality” (early in his tenure) to “targeted precision” (in recent years), focusing on drafting players who fit their system and have high character. Miami Dolphins’ Draft Strategy: Hits and Misses breaks down the team’s most impactful draft decisions, exploring why some picks became cornerstones and others faded into obscurity— and what these outcomes reveal about the Dolphins’ approach to building a roster.

One of the Dolphins’ biggest draft hits in recent memory came in the 2020 NFL Draft, when they selected quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with the 5th overall pick. Miami Dolphins’ Draft Strategy: Hits and Misses must start here, as Tagovailoa has become the face of the franchise and a testament to the team’s ability to identify quarterback talent. At the time, the pick was controversial— some analysts questioned Tagovailoa’s durability (he had hip surgery in college) and compared him unfavorably to other quarterbacks in the class, like Justin Herbert. But the Dolphins’ scouting department saw something different: a precise passer with elite football IQ, who thrived in a spread offense (a perfect fit for Mike McDaniel’s future scheme). Over the past four seasons, Tagovailoa has silenced critics: he’s thrown for 11,840 yards and 81 touchdowns, led the NFL in completion percentage (71.2%) in 2023, and guided the Dolphins to two playoff appearances. What made this pick a masterstroke was the Dolphins’ patience— they didn’t rush Tagovailoa into a starting role as a rookie, letting him learn behind Ryan Fitzpatrick before unleashing him in 2021. This hit not only solved the Dolphins’ longstanding quarterback problem but also gave them a franchise signal-caller to build around for the next decade.

Another notable draft hit for the Dolphins was their 2021 selection of wide receiver Jaylen Waddle with the 6th overall pick— a move that paired elite speed with Tagovailoa and laid the groundwork for Miami’s explosive offense. Miami Dolphins’ Draft Strategy: Hits and Misses wouldn’t be complete without highlighting this pick, as it exemplifies the team’s focus on “system fit” over just raw talent. Waddle, who played with Tagovailoa at the University of Alabama, was a perfect complement to the Dolphins’ growing passing attack: his 4.37-second 40-yard dash speed allowed him to stretch defenses deep, and his familiarity with Tagovailoa’s tendencies created instant chemistry. In his rookie season, Waddle set a Dolphins franchise record for receptions by a rookie (104) and finished with 1,015 receiving yards— becoming just the fifth rookie in NFL history to record 100+ receptions. Over the past three seasons, he’s averaged 1,100 yards per year and developed into one of the league’s most reliable deep threats (18.3 yards per catch in 2023). What made this pick so successful was the Dolphins’ understanding of their offensive identity— they knew they needed a speedster to pair with future acquisition Tyreek Hill, and Waddle fit that role perfectly. Unlike teams that draft for “need” without considering scheme, the Dolphins drafted Waddle to enhance their existing strengths— a strategy that has paid off handsomely.

While the Dolphins have had their share of hits, they’ve also had notable misses— none more costly than their 2019 selection of defensive end Christian Wilkins with the 13th overall pick? No, wait— Wilkins became a hit. A true miss came in the 2018 NFL Draft, when they selected offensive lineman Daniel Kilgore in the third round— a pick that failed to address their offensive line struggles and wasted a valuable draft asset. Miami Dolphins’ Draft Strategy: Hits and Misses must include this miss, as it highlights the dangers of drafting for “experience” over upside. Kilgore, a veteran who had played for the 49ers, was supposed to be a stopgap at center and provide leadership to a young offensive line. But he struggled with injuries (missing 12 games in two seasons) and inconsistent play— allowing 7 sacks in his limited action and failing to stabilize the interior. The Dolphins released him after just two seasons, and the offensive line remained a weakness until recent years. What made this pick a miss was the Dolphins’ short-sightedness: instead of drafting a young center with upside (like Chris Lindstrom, who was taken 14 picks later by the Falcons and became a Pro Bowler), they opted for a veteran who had already peaked. This mistake delayed the Dolphins’ offensive line rebuild by two years and forced them to spend more in free agency to fix the position later.

Another significant draft miss for the Dolphins came in the 2022 NFL Draft, when they selected cornerback Kader Kohou in the undrafted free agent class— no, wait, Kohou was a hit. A true miss was their 2020 selection of defensive tackle Raekwon Davis with the 56th overall pick, a player who failed to live up to expectations and left a hole in the defensive line. Miami Dolphins’ Draft Strategy: Hits and Misses wouldn’t be complete without this, as it shows the risk of drafting based on size and potential rather than production. Davis, a 6-foot-7, 325-pound tackle from Alabama, was praised for his physical tools but had a history of inconsistent play in college. The Dolphins hoped he would develop into a run-stopping force in their defensive line, but he never lived up to that potential: over four seasons, he recorded just 8 sacks and 120 tackles, and his run-stop percentage ranked in the bottom 30% among defensive tackles in 2022 and 2023. The Dolphins declined his fifth-year option in 2024, and he signed with the Lions as a free agent. What made this pick a miss was the Dolphins’ overreliance on “tools” over proven performance— they ignored Davis’ inconsistent college tape and hoped he would develop in the NFL, but he never refined his technique or work ethic. This miss forced the Dolphins to spend big on Christian Wilkins in free agency to fix the defensive line— a cost they could have avoided with a better draft pick.

Looking ahead, the Dolphins’ future draft strategy will likely focus on filling depth in key positions (like offensive line and linebacker) and drafting players who fit Vic Fangio’s defensive scheme— a shift from their earlier “win now” approach to a more balanced “build for sustainability” mindset. Miami Dolphins’ Draft Strategy: Hits and Misses concludes with this, as the team’s recent success has allowed them to prioritize long-term depth over immediate fixes. In the 2024 NFL Draft, for example, they selected safety Cam Smith (second round) and linebacker Mohamed Kamara (fifth round)— players who may not start right away but have the potential to become key contributors in Fangio’s defense. The Dolphins have also learned from their past misses: they’re now more likely to draft players with proven college production (like Smith, who had 6 interceptions in college) than those with just physical tools. By balancing hits and learning from misses, the Dolphins have built a draft strategy that aligns with their goal of becoming a perennial Super Bowl contender. For fans, the draft will remain a key storyline— as each pick has the potential to be the next Tua Tagovailoa (a hit) or the next Raekwon Davis (a miss), and shape the team’s success for years to come.