Unlikely to Play vs the Denver Broncos

As the Denver Broncos prepare for a critical Week 16 divisional matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, a major storyline has emerged that could tilt the balance of the game: Chiefs star tight end Travis Kelce is unlikely to play due to a lingering knee injury. Kelce, one of the NFL’s most dominant offensive weapons and quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ top target, has been sidelined since Week 14, and recent updates from the Chiefs’ medical staff suggest he won’t be cleared in time to face the Broncos. This news isn’t just a blow to the Chiefs—it’s a significant shift in the dynamics of a game that could decide the AFC West title. Unlikely to Play vs the Denver Broncos explores the details of Kelce’s injury, the Chiefs’ options without him, and how the Broncos might capitalize on his absence to secure a crucial win.

Unlikely to Play vs the Denver Broncos first delves into the nature of Kelce’s injury and the timeline that has led to his probable absence. The 34-year-old tight end suffered a Grade 1 MCL sprain in the Chiefs’ Week 14 win over the Las Vegas Raiders, after being hit low while making a 12-yard catch in the second quarter. Initial reports suggested Kelce could return in 1-2 weeks, but Chiefs head coach Andy Reid tempered expectations last Wednesday, telling reporters, “Travis is making progress, but we’re not going to rush him back. We’ll take it day by day.” By Friday, Kelce was listed as “doubtful” on the injury report—an NFL designation that means there’s a 75% chance a player won’t play—and he did not participate in the Chiefs’ final practice of the week. Chiefs team doctor Rick Burkholder later clarified that while Kelce’s knee is healing, the risk of re-injury in a high-intensity divisional game was too great. “We want Travis at full strength for the playoffs,” Burkholder said. “Playing him this week just isn’t worth the risk.” For the Chiefs, losing Kelce isn’t just about losing a receiver—it’s about losing a player who has accounted for 28% of their passing yards (892) and 25% of their touchdown catches (9) this season.

To understand the full impact of Unlikely to Play vs the Denver Broncos, it’s essential to look at how Kelce’s absence changes the Chiefs’ offensive strategy. Kelce isn’t just a tight end—he’s a Swiss Army knife who lines up in the slot, out wide, and in the backfield, forcing defenses to adjust their coverage on every play. Without him, the Chiefs will likely rely more on their wide receivers: Rashee Rice (65 catches, 842 yards), Kadarius Toney (32 catches, 368 yards), and Skyy Moore (28 catches, 314 yards). However, none of these players have Kelce’s ability to draw double teams or create separation in tight spaces. In the Chiefs’ Week 15 win over the Buffalo Bills (a game Kelce missed), Mahomes completed just 58% of his passes (down from 67% when Kelce plays) and threw his first interception in three weeks. The Chiefs also struggled in the red zone, converting just 2 of 5 opportunities—well below their season average of 68%. “Travis is the guy we go to when we need a big play,” Mahomes said after the Bills game. “Without him, we have to spread the ball around more, and that takes time to adjust to.” For the Broncos, this adjustment period could be a window of opportunity to disrupt the Chiefs’ usually high-powered offense.

Unlikely to Play vs the Denver Broncos also examines how the Broncos’ defense might adjust to exploit Kelce’s absence. Denver’s defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero has spent weeks preparing for a Chiefs offense led by Kelce, but with the tight end out, Evero is likely to shift his focus to shutting down the Chiefs’ wide receivers and limiting Mahomes’ ability to extend plays. The Broncos could use more “Cover 2” looks, with safeties Justin Simmons and Caden Sterns dropping back to cover the deep middle—an area Kelce often exploits—while cornerbacks Pat Surtain II and Damarri Mathis lock down Rice and Toney on the outside. The Broncos’ defensive line, which has recorded 10 sacks in their last two games, will also likely increase their pass rush, knowing Mahomes will have fewer reliable targets to throw to under pressure. “Without Kelce, the Chiefs’ offense is more predictable,” Evero said in a press conference this week. “We can focus on taking away their other weapons and making Mahomes uncomfortable in the pocket.” For the Denver Broncos, this adjustment isn’t just about winning one game—it’s about seizing control of the AFC West. A win over the Chiefs would give the Broncos a three-game lead in the division with just two weeks left, all but clinching the title.

Another key angle of Unlikely to Play vs the Denver Broncos is the pressure this puts on the Chiefs to find a replacement for Kelce. The Chiefs’ backup tight ends—Noah Gray and Blake Bell—have combined for just 32 catches and 2 touchdowns this season, and neither has the speed or route-running ability to replicate Kelce’s production. Gray is a solid blocker but lacks Kelce’s receiving skills, while Bell is more of a situational player who excels in short-yardage situations. To compensate, the Chiefs might use more three-wide receiver sets or motion running back Isiah Pacheco out of the backfield to create mismatches. However, these adjustments are untested in high-pressure games, and the Broncos’ defense has already shown it can adapt to unconventional formations. “The Chiefs are a great team, but they’re not the same without Kelce,” Broncos linebacker Josey Jewell said. “We have to take advantage of that and make them earn every yard.” For the Denver Broncos, the Chiefs’ lack of depth at tight end is a weakness they’ve been preparing to exploit, and they’ll likely use a mix of blitzes and coverage schemes to keep Mahomes off balance.

The final layer of Unlikely to Play vs the Denver Broncos is the broader implications of this matchup for both teams’ playoff aspirations. For the Broncos, a win would not only clinch the AFC West but also potentially secure a top-2 seed in the AFC, giving them a first-round bye in the playoffs. For the Chiefs, a loss would drop them to 10-5 and force them to fight for a wildcard spot, putting their streak of seven consecutive division titles at risk. Kelce’s absence makes the Chiefs’ path to victory significantly harder, but Mahomes has a history of leading comebacks even without his top targets. However, the Broncos’ defense—now back at full strength with Surtain and Jewell—has the talent to slow down the Chiefs’ offense. “This is the biggest game of the season so far,” Broncos head coach Sean Payton said. “We know the Chiefs are going to play hard, but we also know we have the tools to win this game.” For the Denver Broncos, Kelce’s likely absence is a break, but it’s not a guarantee of victory. They’ll need to execute their game plan, avoid turnovers, and capitalize on the Chiefs’ vulnerabilities to secure a win that could define their season. As kickoff approaches, all eyes will be on the Chiefs’ sideline—waiting to see if Kelce suits up. But for now, the odds suggest the Broncos will face a Chiefs team missing one of its most vital pieces.